- A new study estimates that vaccines prevented almost 140,000 deaths during the early months of 2021.
- 此外，可能已阻止近300万个案例。
- 专家表示，疫苗是我们控制大流行的最可靠的方法。
- 然而，疫苗接种率下降。
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在期刊上发表的一项新研究Health Affairsestimates that by the second week of May 2021, the early COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the United States had prevented almost 140,000 deaths.
此外，它可能已阻止近300万个疾病病例。
虽然疫苗将预期slow transmission of the virus and save lives, it was not certain just how much their rapid deployment would affect death rates.
本研究旨在评估国家级疫苗接种率和Covid-19死亡之间的关联，在前5个月内可用疫苗。
研究疫苗接种率和Covid-19死亡之间的联系，一组研究人员RAND和Indiana Universitycreated models to estimate how many deaths would have occurred without vaccinations.
Sumedha Gupta, the first author of the study and an economist at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, said she and her team estimated the COVID-19 illnesses and deaths reductions by conducting a “natural experiment.”
States with high vaccination rates were the treatment group, while states with low vaccination rates were the control group.
Data from theBloomberg COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker用于确定每个州的疫苗剂量有多少。
Death data came from The New York Times’ Coronavirus (COVID-19) Data in the United States数据库.
该研究包括2020年12月21日至5月9日至5月9日的时间段。截至5月9日，研究人员发现Covid-19疫苗接种已预防139,393人死亡。
Gupta表示，他们还发现，相关的死亡从国家到州的状态变化了很大。
例如，在纽约，疫苗接种导致每10,000人估计的11.7较少的Covid-19死亡。
In Hawaii, however, the reduction was only an estimated 1.1 fewer deaths per 10,000 people.
On average, states experienced a reduction of 5 deaths per 10,000 people. There was also variation in how quickly each state progressed in getting people vaccinated.
Alaska was the leader, reaching 20 doses per 100 adults on Jan. 29. Alabama was last to reach this milestone, not getting there until Feb. 21.
California was the first state to reach 120 doses per 100 adults, but many states have not passed this mark.
Gupta表示，在研究期间保存的生命的经济价值达到6.25亿美元和1.4万亿美元。
泰勒·埃文斯博士，与该研究无关的健康与股权联盟联盟的联合创始人指出，研究中有几个局限性，例如社区之间的可变性以及不考虑自然免疫的事实。
然而，埃文斯表示疫苗“绝对”防止住院治疗，省生命，甚至抵御达特雷加型。
“到目前为止，疫苗接种仍然是最可靠的方法来检查大流行，”Gupta说。“然而，即使在众多人口仍未被取消的国家，疫苗接种率也显着减少。”
Gupta表示，对于低疫苗接种率存在真正的担忧，因为它们处于Covid-19浪涌和变体的持续风险。
She noted that it is of “paramount importance” for scientists to get the word out about how state vaccination drives have benefited the population to bring the pandemic under control.
Evans seconded this idea, saying that “state vaccine programs that are more aggressive save lives and money.”
“Just how many remains to be seen,” added Evans, “but studies like Gupta et al. should continue to explore these avenues and help scientists, medical practitioners, and the general public to better understand the role of vaccinations in not only preventing illness and hospitalization but in helping to slow down the spread of the virus once and for all.”