- 卫生官员一直在报道，新的Covid-19案件的平均每日数量在美国正在上升。
- However, some experts say that the focus should shift to COVID-19 hospitalizations as the primary indicators of the pandemic’s status那特别是在新的omicron变体上的光线。
- They say that this is because almost all new cases among vaccinated people don’t develop into serious illnesses, so counting cases has become less important.
As the world enters its third year with the COVID-19 pandemic and the more than500万人死亡that it’s caused, a growing number of experts say that the disease is here to stay, and it’s time we start looking at the novel coronavirus in a new light.
具体来说，他们说是时候通过转移我们看待统计数据的方式来衡量大流行的影响，特别是随着omicron变体迅速推动世界各地。
甚至在之前omicron变体emerged last month, experts said that vaccinated people could still get COVID-19, but他们的风险住院或死亡远低于未接种寄存的人。
So, instead of looking at the case numbers, experts say that it’s time to focus on the severity of the pandemic through the number of hospitalizations. This is especially true as early research shows that Omicron, while probably more transmissible than other variants, is likely less severe when it comes to symptoms.
“It’s always been the way we should have been looking at it,”Dr. William Schaffner那a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee, told Healthline. “Hospitalizations and deaths are much better documenters than new cases.
“措施，案例率和住院，仍然很重要，”Schaffner继续。“omicron显然比三角洲更传播。为了测量其快速传播，案例率将在前面。
“We’re not entirely sure how virulent Omicron is. Most cases have been mild, occurring in vaccinated people. What will it do among an unvaccinated population, such as my state’s rural areas?
“omicron将需要一点时间进入这样的地方。曾经，住院率再次成为一个重要因素，“他解释道。
“If Omicron is both highly contagious and generally mild, then we in the U.S. will be able to move from acute pandemic into more chronic, endemic COVID,” Schaffner predicted.
“However, the pandemic still will be active over much of the world. All the variants of concern have originated in other countries, so new virulent variants could arise and be imported here, once again. This comprehensive global view is necessary.
“从来没有低估了令人讨厌的曲线球的阴道，”他指出。
Schaffner补充说，在整个大流行中，测试能力受到限制，这可能导致Covid-19案件的损失。所以假阴性，特别是在家里的快速测试。
Dr. Monica Gandhi是旧金山加州大学的传染病专家和医学教授。
她写了一个op-ed.for the San Francisco Chronicle last month saying, among other things, that herd immunity is no longer achievable and that we need to rethink the notion of tracking COVID-19 by new cases.
“这样做是有道理的，”甘地告诉健康线。雷竞技app官网“我们以为以某种方式讨论了传播链。但它是如此可推动，你不能打破那个链条。“
甘地表示，随着更多疫苗和有效的新抗病毒药物有效地限制了Covid-19的严重程度，因此案例率不再是衡量我们大流行反应的有效晴雨表，特别是omicron蔓延的能力较快，但具有较高的疾病。
“omicron变体使这个概念更重要，”甘地说。“我们很可能在全球omicron中获得许多案例，但是 - 由于疾病的严重程度降低了 - 这种变体的影响和政策限制，应基于跟踪住院治疗。
“The pandemic is widespread enough that most people will be exposed to the coronavirus at some point, so the sooner we get used to the idea, the sooner we get back to normal. Especially with the more transmissible Omicron,” she added.
“The idea was, in general, if cases went up, numbers of people in the hospital went up,” Gandhi said. “Now, it’s not only de-linked, but it’s completely muddled. Cases and hospitalizations are no longer linked.”
Gandhi said that we can expect COVID-19 to continue evolving into something causing fewer deaths and hospitalizations, “either because it is less severe, or because our immunity in the population worldwide has increased.
“Much of the population will be exposed to Omicron, since it is so transmissible, which will provide even more immunity – hybrid in the case of those who have been vaccinated — to COVID-19, so I hope we won’t get any more severe curveballs ahead.”
Although COVID-19 remains a bigger threat than influenza, both are respiratory infections, Gandhi pointed out.
“We need to get everyone on board,” she said. “We’re never stomping out the flu or any other respiratory virus. We only did that with smallpox, and we wore that on our skin [meaning it was easier to diagnose visually].”
Gandhi said that the notion we could completely eradicate COVID-19 was a political idea instead of a practical one.
“这都是政治性的，”她说。“它比流感更严重。但是一旦你接种疫苗，就没有。没有人知道特定城市的流感病例有多少。我的意思是，我这样做，但我是医生。但我们不遵循这一点。人们减少了公共卫生官员的信任。“
realistica恢复一些信任的方式lly dealing with the novel coronavirus by opening things up and continuing to push vaccinations, especially as we’re seeing the typical uptick in cases coming as winter approaches, Gandhi said.
“Americans are all going to be exposed [at some point], I’m sorry to say,” Gandhi told Healthline. “That’s how a respiratory disease works and how they’ve always worked.”
Schaffner同意我们需要学会与Covid-19一起生活。
“在我们的余生中，我们可能需要常规助推器，”他说。“现在有研究Covid-19和流感疫苗的疫苗研究人员现在。”