- 专家一直在寻找过去的大流行技术，以帮助我们了解Covid-19的期望。
- An article in The New York Times brought up one pandemic, dubbed the “Russian flu.”
- 专家说，如果没有临床标本，就不可能知道它是冠状病毒还是流感。
自Covid-19首次出现在2019年以来，流行病学家一直在寻找past pandemics要收集一些有关该如何泛滥的见解。
科学家研究了1918年流感大流行，2009年SARS危机，埃博拉病毒和其他大流行疾病，以了解人类的行为和病毒特征如何影响大流行病的方式。
本周早些时候，《纽约时报》发表了文章looking at an outbreak called the “Russian flu” that struck in the late 19th century, causing a pandemic that lasted 3 years and shut down schools, businesses, and factories.
据《泰晤士报》报道，一些科学家怀疑俄罗斯流感可能是由冠状病毒造成的，冠状病毒很可能直到今天。
但是我们对俄罗斯流感的了解的大部分都是猜测。
“这是历史，将其转变为科学将需要大量工作。直到且除非有人可以从引起俄罗斯流感引起的任何遗传材料中阅读一些遗传材料，否则我们只能推测其原因。”本杰明·诺伊曼博士，得克萨斯农工大学的生物学教授和首席病毒学家。
Dr. Amesh Adalja,约翰·霍普金斯卫生安全中心的传染病专家和高级学者说，专家们总是研究主要的大流行，以了解传染病的发展。
这是未知的俄罗斯流感是否引起的an influenza strain or a coronavirus, however, it would be helpful to know this to better understand how these viruses evolve over time.
Adalja说：“我们对俄罗斯流感的了解并不了解，因为没有可用的临床标本来确定原因。”
当时尚无帮助我们序列和鉴定病毒的分子测试。
To identify the type of virus behind the Russian flu, scientists would need viral genetic material that has somehow remained intact for over a century.
人类遗体可能保存在多年冻土中。这就是科学家能够发现和鉴定1918年引起流感流行的流感病毒的方式。
But scientists haven’t yet discovered genetic material from the Russian flu.
“From the surviving accounts, it looks as though the Russian flu may have been an infectious disease, but beyond that, it’s impossible to say,” Neuman said.
Because we do not have that genetic material, it’s unknown if some descendant of the Russian flu circulates today.
“We know of hundreds of kinds of viruses and bacteria that can spread through the air and cause problems in the lungs, and without some genetic evidence, there is no way to tell which it could have been,” Neuman said.
There is a chance that the Russian flu is one of the seasonal coronaviruses — but that is merely speculation.
It’s also entirely plausible that the virus that caused the Russian flu is now extinct, according to Neuman.
Some scientists believe anecdotal reports from the 19th century suggest the Russian flu behaved more like a coronavirus than a flu strain.
“有一些建议，这种大流行与流感大流行的行为不同，因为它确实攻击了年长的人并幸免了年轻人。还有一些关于口味和气味丧失的报道。”阿达尔贾说。
但是，由于关于俄罗斯流感的未知数太多，病毒学家说，实际上我们没有任何知识可以应用于这一大流行。
诺伊曼说：“我知道很多人会从没有人类干预的情况下出现和消失的病毒的故事感到安慰，这表明Covid会做同样的事情，但这并不像那样容易。”
每种病毒的行为都不同。
看看这个冠状病毒（SARS-COV-2）是多么不同原始SARS，也是冠状病毒，于2002 - 2004年流通。
诺伊曼说：“即使病毒在遗传上非常相似，它们的作用也可能完全不同。”
此外，我们现在有工具，我们在1800年代后期没有使用的工具 - 测试，疫苗，抗病毒药 - 可以影响大流行的发展方式。
“We know zilch about the Russian flu, in terms of actionable genetic and molecular data,” Neuman said. “Until that changes, the Russian flu is an interesting story, like Goldilocks and the Three Bears, and neither is of any real use in dealing with COVID.”
Epidemiologists have looked to past pandemics to get insights into how this one might unfold. Now, some scientists are studying the “Russian flu” that struck in the 19th century and wondering whether it was caused by a coronavirus.
Virologists stress that very little is understood about the Russian flu, and until we have genetic material from that era, we won’t be able to determine what caused it and if it could help us understand how the COVID pandemic will play out.